I want to share some thoughts about the reasons why HODLing Bitcoin is risky, and why you don’t need to build any TA strategies for trading Bitcoin.
First: why not to HODL Bitcoin?
HODLing require from you to hold long position for years. You assume that the price will go up long-term. But why it should go up? General reason for that assumption is that many and many people, enthusiasts, developers, investors, organizations of the whole world get to recognize Bitcoin more. This results to encreasing money flow and price. But in essence, what Bitcoin exactly can give? Of course, decentralizaton, self emission, a bit privacy. But Bitcoin lack some features, that other cryptocurrencies have. Bitcoin can’t give people enough transaction speed and convinience. Bitcoin can’t give developers convinient methods to build applications. Bitcoin can’t help organizations and investors get rid of the fear that this is all just a bubble.
Bitcoin is important step to revolution of the whole financial system, but not the last. It exists now, because not many people understand that Bitcoin is relic of the past. Ethereum is much more promising than Bitcoin with it’s smart-contracts. HODL Ethereum not Bitcoin, when the disaster comes, Bitcoin won’t survive.
Second: why not to trade Bitcoin?
How are you predict price of Bitcoin? TA indicators?
Ranges? Support/Resistance? Price action? Candle patterns?
We all know about bad statistic of these tools. Almost anyone can’t say why they using RSI, MACD, MA, CCI, Bollinger bands and other indicators. Why tringle pattern should end in desired direction? How these tools can help you predict, statistically unpredictible price? Price doesn’t owe you something.
Price drives by big speculators, sharks, whales, market makers and other monsters of crypto ocean. They are trying to eat each other. Doesn’t you noticed that Bitcoin pumps when new antminer ASICs are sold? You think that Elon Musk that smart to buy Bitcoin? He’s smarter! Hype of Bitcoin is rising, why not to sell Tesla cars for Bitcoin?
But just a quick and realistic glance at the Bitcoin price chart of last several months gives clear vision of situation:PUMP!. And what happens after pump? Have someone an answer? Sit down, take A+, of course a DUMP!
You need to have insider info. With that, you’ll get more chances. Or be the shark, while this almost impossible.
You can keep trading TA of course, scalping works in every market. But how many succeded traders do you know? Those youtubers? They get money from traffic, adverticement and affiliate programs, not from your success.
If you don’t beleave in the future of cryptocurrencies, just want to earn some paper money, then HODL Ethereum or speculate with top altcoins with high liquidity and volatility.
Tell me your opinion.
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